By: Afzaal Khadim Khan
Source: Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA)
Date: 3 August 2025
📌 Overall Summary
- National Arrivals as of 31 July 2025: 593,821 bales
- Last Year (2024) Same Date: 844,257 bales
- Difference: ▼250,436 bales → 29.66% Decline
📍 Punjab Region
- Total Arrivals (2025): 301,481 bales
- Last Year (2024): 292,555 bales
- Change: ▲8,926 bales → ▲3.05% Increase
✅ Key Districts with Increased Arrivals:
- D.G. Khan: 43,973 bales → up 218.76%
- Rajanpur: 18,173 bales → up 211.98%
- Muzaffargarh: 5,445 bales → up 107.43%
- Jhang: 7,740 bales → up 131.74%
❌ Districts with Declines:
- Lodhran: ▼76.51%
- Sahiwal: ▼33.62%
- Faisalabad: ▼36.10%
- Bahawalnagar: ▼31.86%
Observation: Punjab overall improved slightly due to high growth in southern districts, though central Punjab saw reduced flows.
📍 Sindh Region
- Total Arrivals (2025): 292,340 bales
- Last Year (2024): 551,702 bales
- Change: ▼259,362 bales → ▼47.01% Decline
🔻 Major Losses:
- Sanghar: ▼188,850 bales → down 44.18%
- Mirpurkhas: ▼59.93%
- Hyderabad: ▼50.82%
- Nawabshah: ▼77.53%
- Naushero Feroze, Khairpur, Sukkur, Ghotki: 100% decline (0 arrivals)
Observation: Sindh’s cotton flow crisis is severe — nearly half production lost year-over-year. Dry weather, delayed sowing, or pest pressure may be causes.
📍 National Comparison
| Category | 2025 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Arrivals | 593,821 | 844,257 | ▼29.66% |
| Total Sold | 529,154 | 744,083 | ▼28.91% |
| Unsold Stock | 64,667 | 99,774 | ▼35.18% |
| This Year’s Flow | 296,070 | 402,216 | ▼26.36% |
✅ Key Takeaways
- Despite Punjab’s marginal growth, Sindh’s decline dragged the national figure down nearly 30%.
- Commercial flow (sales) also dropped accordingly — suggesting weaker local demand or holding patterns by ginners.
- Unsold stock is down, indicating either better inventory control or lower production to sell.
Summary of Analysis:
- Punjab saw a slight increase in cotton arrivals in 2025 (301,481 bales) compared to 2024 (292,555 bales), showing stable supply.
- Sindh, however, experienced a significant drop from 551,702 bales in 2024 to 292,340 bales in 2025 — a decline of nearly 47%.
- As a result, overall cotton arrivals in Pakistan fell by approximately 30% year-on-year, from 844,257 bales in 2024 to 593,821 bales in 2025.
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📊 Strategic Outlook
- Cotton buyers may face supply tightness.
- Import parity and synthetic alternatives could affect spinning decisions.
- Sindh’s crop failure may influence policy or import duties to balance supply.