Monthly Cotton Price Movement
📊 1. ICE Cotton Futures (Jul’25 to Mar’26 Contracts)
| Contract | Start Price | End Price | Monthly Change | % Change | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul’25 | 68.41 | 65.06 | -3.35¢/lb | -4.90% | Consistent downward movement. Largest drop. |
| Oct’25 | 69.91 | 67.44 | -2.47¢/lb | -3.53% | Moderate decline, following Jul closely. |
| Dec’25 | 69.71 | 67.75 | -1.96¢/lb | -2.81% | Less volatile; drop softened mid-month. |
| Mar’26 | 70.85 | 69.22 | -1.63¢/lb | -2.30% | Least impacted, showing some resilience. |
🔹 Insight: Futures declined steadily throughout May, reflecting bearish outlook in speculative and forward markets — possibly due to improving crop outlooks, weak demand, or macroeconomic influences.
2. CotLook A Index
- Start: 77.25 ¢/lb
- End: 77.70 ¢/lb
- Monthly Change: +0.45 ¢/lb
- % Change: +0.58%
🔹 Insight: The CotLook A Index rose modestly, signaling firm physical demand or constrained global availability even as futures softened. Could reflect regional tightness not yet priced into futures.
3. China Cotton (CZCE Spot Price in CNY/ton)
- Start: 12,490
- End: 13,050
- Monthly Change: +560 CNY
- % Change: +4.48%
🔹 Insight: Prices in China increased sharply, driven likely by state reserve activity, low domestic stock, or strong mill demand. Indicates divergence from global futures trend.
4. Brazil Cotton (USC/lb)
- Start: 78.14 ¢/lb
- End: 77.26 ¢/lb
- Monthly Change: -0.88 ¢/lb
- % Change: -1.13%
🔹 Insight: Brazilian cotton edged lower in May, possibly reflecting export competition or a weaker real making cotton less expensive in dollar terms.
5. Indian Cotton (INR/Candy & USC/lb)
| Metric | Start | End | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INR/Candy | 55,500 | 54,700 | -800 INR | -1.44% decline |
| USC/lb | 83.04 | 81.61 | -1.43 ¢/lb | Largely FX driven |
🔹 Insight: Indian cotton softened slightly over May, likely from domestic supply easing, seasonal harvest influence, or FX pressure on international competitiveness.
🔄 Summary Table
| Market Segment | Monthly Change | % Change | Trend | Key Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE Jul’25 | -3.35 ¢/lb | -4.90% | 🔻 Bearish | Futures under pressure |
| ICE Oct’25 | -2.47 ¢/lb | -3.53% | 🔻 | Medium drop |
| ICE Dec’25 | -1.96 ¢/lb | -2.81% | 🔻 | Mild easing |
| ICE Mar’26 | -1.63 ¢/lb | -2.30% | 🔻 | Least decline |
| CotLook A Index | +0.45 ¢/lb | +0.58% | 🔺 Firm | Spot market support |
| China CZCE | +560 CNY/ton | +4.48% | 🔺 Strong | Domestic strength |
| Brazil | -0.88 ¢/lb | -1.13% | 🔻 | Slight weakness |
| India INR/Candy | -800 INR | -1.44% | 🔻 | Modest decline |
| India USC/lb | -1.43 ¢/lb | -1.72% | 🔻 | FX-adjusted fall |
📝 Conclusion
- Futures markets declined across the board, particularly for near-month contracts (Jul–Oct).
- China’s cotton prices diverged upward, indicating strong domestic conditions.
- Spot market (CotLook) held up, showing physical demand remains intact.
- Brazil and India saw softening, likely due to export dynamics and currency factors.
Pakistan Cotton (KCA Spot Rate, Minimum & Maximum Prices)
| Metric | 02-May-25 | 30-May-25 | Monthly Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCA Spot Rate | 16,700 PKR | 16,700 PKR | 0 PKR | 0.00% |
| Minimum Price | 15,500 PKR | 16,500 PKR | +1,000 PKR | +6.45% |
| Maximum Price | 17,500 PKR | 17,800 PKR | +300 PKR | +1.71% |
In USD terms (USC/lb):
| Metric | 02-May-25 | 30-May-25 | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| KCA Spot Rate | 72.21 | 71.97 | -0.24 ¢/lb |
| Minimum Price | 67.03 | 71.11 | +4.08 ¢/lb |
| Maximum Price | 75.67 | 76.71 | +1.04 ¢/lb |
📊 Observations
🟢 1. Stability in KCA Spot Rate
- The KCA spot rate remained flat at 16,700 PKR/Maund all month.
- Minor fluctuations in USD terms (↓0.33%) were due to exchange rate shifts, not market price changes.
🔼 2. Increase in Minimum Price
- The minimum price rose from 15,500 to 16,500 PKR (+6.45%), indicating:
- Firming of floor prices across lower-quality cotton or lower supply availability.
- Stronger mill buying for even the cheapest grades.
🔼 3. Increase in Maximum Price
- Maximum price climbed 1.71%, from 17,500 to 17,800 PKR.
- This suggests stronger demand or tighter availability of premium grades by end of May.
📈 Price Range & Volatility
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Price Spread (PKR) | Max – Min = 1,300 PKR |
| Max PKR/Maund | 18,000 (on 27 May) |
| Min PKR/Maund | 15,500 (early & late May) |
| Average Min | 16,252 |
| Average Max | 17,457 |
Interpretation: While the official KCA spot rate stayed unchanged, the market breadth expanded, showing a wider range of transactions and increased price differentiation by quality.
📝 Key Takeaways
- Flat KCA spot rate masks underlying market firmness, especially in minimum-grade cotton.
- The rise in min and max prices reflects a stronger buyer appetite across the board.
- Likely reasons: domestic stock tightness, import dependency, or improved textile demand.
- This trend contrasts with more bearish futures and other global spot markets (e.g., Brazil, India).
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