Critical Analysis
Pakistan Cotton Arrivals Report
August 15, 2025
By: Afzaal Khadim Khan
Executive Summary
Pakistan Cotton Arrival Analysis 15 Aug 2025 vs 2024, show a significant decline of 17.45% compared to the same date in 2024. Current arrivals stand at 887,401 bales versus 1,075,028 bales last year – a shortfall of 187,627 bales. This represents a concerning trend in Pakistan’s cotton production, with Sindh province experiencing particularly severe declines.
Provincial Performance Analysis
Punjab Province
- Current Arrivals: 369,550 bales
- Last Year: 392,736 bales
- Performance: -5.90% decline (23,186 bales short)
- Assessment: Moderate decline, relatively better performance compared to national average
Key District Analysis:
- Best Performers: Dera Ghazi Khan (+145.76%), Rajanpur (+147.27%), and Muzaffargarh (+47.04%) showing remarkable growth
- Major Concerns: Sahiwal (-33.48%), Bahawalpur (-34.87%), and Lodhran (-79.49%) experiencing severe shortfalls
- Operational Issues: Several districts (Pakpattan, Okara, Qasur, Mianwali, Bhakkar, Sargodha) show zero arrivals, indicating possible operational or climatic challenges
Sindh Province
- Current Arrivals: 517,851 bales
- Last Year: 682,292 bales
- Performance: -24.10% decline (164,441 bales short)
- Assessment: Severe underperformance requiring immediate attention
Critical Issues in Sindh:
- Sanghar District: Major cotton hub showing -23.73% decline (121,552 bales short)
- Complete Shutdowns: Khairpur, Ghotki, and Sukkur showing zero arrivals (100% decline)
- Only Bright Spot: Hyderabad showing marginal growth of 1.57%
Factory Operations & Efficiency Analysis
Processing Capacity Utilization
- Total Factories Operating: 244 (down from previous capacity indicators)
- Ginning Efficiency: 94.65% (839,987 bales ginned from 887,401 arrivals)
- Unginned Stock: 47,414 bales, indicating processing bottlenecks
Sales Performance
- Sales to Textiles: 806,488 bales (96.01% of ginned cotton)
- Export/Trader Sales: Minimal (nearly zero)
- Unsold Stock: 33,499 bales (manageable level)
Market Dynamics & Flow Analysis
Cotton Flow Patterns
- This Year’s Flow: 293,580 bales
- Last Year’s Flow: 230,771 bales
- Flow Increase: +27.2%, indicating improved market movement despite lower production
Inventory Management
- Current Unsold Stock: 80,913 bales
- Last Year’s Unsold Stock: 68,511 bales
- Stock Increase: +18.1%, suggesting demand-supply mismatch
Critical Concerns & Red Flags
1. Regional Disparities
- Extreme variations between districts within provinces
- Complete shutdown of operations in multiple districts
- Concentration of production in fewer areas
2. Production Sustainability
- Two consecutive years of declining arrivals in Sindh
- Overall national production trend showing consistent decline
- Loss of production capacity in traditional cotton-growing areas
3. Supply Chain Issues
- High unginned stock levels indicating processing delays
- Regional factories operating below capacity
- Infrastructure challenges in zero-arrival districts
4. Market Structure
- Heavy dependence on textile sector (96% of sales)
- Minimal export activity
- Limited trader participation
Comparative Performance Rankings
Top Performing Districts (Growth)
- Rajanpur: +147.27%
- Dera Ghazi Khan: +145.76%
- Muzaffargarh: +47.04%
- Jhang: +46.17%
- Multan: +43.14%
Worst Performing Districts (Decline)
- Khairpur, Ghotki, Sukkur: -100%
- Lodhran: -79.49%
- Rahim Yar Khan: -69.20%
- Nawabshah: -67.21%
- Faisalabad: -42.21%
Strategic Implications
Short-term Challenges
- Meeting textile industry demand with reduced supply
- Managing regional production imbalances
- Addressing processing bottlenecks
Long-term Concerns
- Pakistan’s position as a cotton producer under threat
- Need for agricultural policy intervention
- Climate change adaptation requirements
- Investment in cotton sector technology and infrastructure
Recommendations
Immediate Actions
- Emergency Support for zero-arrival districts
- Processing Capacity Enhancement to reduce unginned stock
- Market Diversification beyond textile dependence
- Regional Coordination between high and low-performing areas
Strategic Interventions
- Agricultural Modernization programs
- Water Management solutions for affected regions
- Farmer Support schemes and crop insurance
- Export Market Development initiatives
Conclusion
The 17.45% decline in cotton arrivals represents a significant challenge for Pakistan’s textile industry and agricultural economy. While some districts show remarkable resilience and growth, the overall trend indicates systemic issues requiring comprehensive policy intervention. The concentration of declines in Sindh province, traditionally a major cotton producer, is particularly concerning and requires immediate attention to prevent further erosion of Pakistan’s cotton production capacity.