📊 Pakistan Cotton Arrival Report – Comprehensive Analysis
PCGA Consolidated Statement (Arrivals up to 30 Nov 2025)
Issued: 03 December 2025
Source: PCGA & KCA
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
National Position
- Pakistan Total Arrivals: 5.133 million bales
- Last Year Same Period: 5.190 million bales
➡️ Difference: −57,105 bales (−1.10%) – practically flat YoY. - Total Pressing: 4.976 million bales
- Unsold Stock (Ginned + Unginned): 667,257 bales vs 677,247 last year → slightly lower.
Provincial Breakdown
| Province | Arrivals 2025-26 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Punjab | 2.349 million bales | −4.49% (short by 110,437) |
| Sindh | 2.784 million bales | +1.95% (increase of 53,332) |
🔎 Sindh has outperformed Punjab this season, pulling national numbers close to last year despite Punjab’s weaker performance.
2. PROVINCIAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
A) Punjab – Decline of 4.49%
Punjab arrivals fell from 2.459 million to 2.349 million bales, showing:
- Impact of pest attacks in some belts
- Wetter-than-normal conditions
- Late sowing in pockets
- Lower yields in several districts
Strong District Performers
- D.G. Khan: +30.56% (very strong rebound)
- Rajanpur: +109% (exceptional recovery vs last year)
- Vehari: +21%
- Jhang: +17.68%
Underperforming Districts
- Rahim Yar Khan: −7.30% (big contributor to Punjab decline)
- Bahawalpur: −8.31%
- Multan: −27.74%
- Lodhran: −74.26% (largest shortfall in Punjab)
- Sahiwal: −21%
- Faisalabad: −18.88%
➡️ Punjab’s major cotton belt (Multan, Lodhran, RYK, Bahawalpur) has shown stress.
B) Sindh – Increase of 1.95%
Sindh arrivals rose from 2.731 million to 2.784 million bales, mainly due to:
- Better crop management
- Favourable weather
- Early maturity
- Improved performance in key districts
Strong District Performers
- Nawabshah: +52.21%
- Mirpurkhas/Tharparkar: +24.96%
- Naushahro Feroze: +11.04%
- Dadu: +12.30%
- Jamshoro: +8.61%
- Hyderabad: +7.63%
- Baluchistan region: +11.55%
Weak Performers
- Ghotki: −7.52%
- Sukkur: −3.84%
- Khairpur: −2.67%
- Sanghar: −0.74% (minor shortfall but still huge volume district)
- Badin: −55.7% (major decline)
➡️ The strong performance in central Sindh compensated for mild declines in upper Sindh.
3. DISTRICT-LEVEL INSIGHTS (Key Movers)
Top 5 Districts by Highest Arrivals
- Sanghar: 1.228 million bales
- Bahawalnagar: 608,000+
- Rahim Yar Khan: 314,000+
- Sukkur: 325,000+
- Bahawalpur: 370,000+
Top 5 Positive Growth Districts
- Rajanpur (+109%)
- Nawabshah (+52%)
- Mirpur Khas/Tharparkar (+24%)
- Naushahro Feroze (+11%)
- D.G. Khan (+30%)
Top 5 Negative Growth Districts
- Lodhran (−74.26%)
- Badin (−55.7%)
- Multan (−27.7%)
- Muzaffargarh (−49.6%)
- Faisalabad (−18.88%)
4. SALES, STOCK & MARKET FLOWS
Sales Distribution
- Textile Mills: 4.293 million bales purchased
- Exporters/Traders: 172,600 bales
- TCP: 0 bales (no government procurement)
- Unsold (Ginned): 509,830
- Unginned (Phutti Stock): 157,427
➡️ Mill uptake is strong; trader activity is modest; TCP absence keeps prices market-driven.
Nightly Flow
- This year: 277,115 bales
- Last year: 296,777 bales
➡️ Slightly slower market pace YoY.
Unsold Stock Comparison
| Year | Unsold Stock |
|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 667,257 bales |
| 2024-25 | 677,247 bales |
➡️ Lower unsold stock supports firmer price sentiment.
5. MARKET IMPLICATIONS
Price Impact
- Near-flat arrivals YoY → supply tightness continues, not enough surplus to pressure prices
- Lower Punjab crop may keep domestic prices firm
- Better Sindh arrivals improve quality mix (Sindh fiber is earlier and more stable)
Quality Trends
- Early Sindh crop = shorter staple
- Later Punjab crop expected to improve staple averages but arrival delays persist
- Reports indicate presence of contamination and quality variation in some Punjab belts
Ginner & Mill Behaviour
- Mills actively buying on dips
- Ginners holding stock expecting firmer January-March prices
- Exporters showing limited interest due to high local price vs international parity
6. KEY RISKS AHEAD
- Possible late-season pest pressure in remaining Punjab fields
- International cotton futures volatility (NY ICE)
- Currency fluctuation impacting yarn export margins
- Slower global demand for cotton yarn and fabrics
- Lower water availability for late-winter plantings in certain belts
7. OUTLOOK (Dec–Jan Projection)
Production Estimate
Based on arrival pace, projected total arrivals by end-season:
- National Production Estimate: 7.0 – 7.2 million bales
- Slightly below last year’s 7.75 million bales.
Price Outlook
- Expected to remain firm to slightly upward
- Mills will continue hand-to-mouth buying
- Yarn market demand (local & export) will dictate ginner confidence
Policy Considerations
- No TCP buying = fully market-driven season
- Potential for import interest if prices rise sharply above parity
8. SUMMARY CONCLUSION
Pakistan’s cotton arrivals as of 30 Nov 2025 show:
- Almost flat performance year-on-year (−1.10%)
- Punjab weak, Sindh strong
- Unsold stock tighter, supporting steady prices
- Market moving cautiously, but mills active
This balanced situation should keep market stable, with mild upward pressure depending on yarn export demand and international market movement.