Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA) Cotton Arrival Report as of 15 September 2025:
By: Afzaal Khadim Khan
📊 National Overview
- Total Cotton Arrivals (2025-26): 2.004 million bales
- Same period last year (2024-25): 1.434 million bales
- Year-on-Year Growth: +39.77% (≈570,000 bales higher)
- Pressing: 1.776 million bales already pressed.
- Sales: 1.678 million bales sold (mostly to textile mills).
- Unsold Stock: 325,780 bales, sharply higher than last year’s 83,177 bales.
This indicates a strong crop recovery in both Sindh and Punjab, with a comfortable supply situation compared to last year’s shortages.
🌾 Provincial Breakdown
Punjab
- Total Arrivals: 690,254 bales
- Last Year (same time): 538,686 bales
- Change: +28.14%
- Key Performing Districts:
- Vehari: 114,385 bales (+24.3%)
- Khanewal: 86,218 bales (+10.0%)
- Bahawalnagar: 86,725 bales (+105%) – doubling arrivals compared to last year
- Rahim Yar Khan: 42,280 bales (+369%) – exceptional surge
- Laggards:
- Lodhran (–64%), Sahiwal (–25%), Faisalabad (–31%), Bhakkar (–100%).
Punjab is showing mixed performance, with southern districts driving growth, while central cotton belt districts are lagging.
Sindh
- Total Arrivals: 1.314 million bales
- Last Year: 895,342 bales
- Change: +46.8% (much stronger than Punjab)
- Key Districts:
- Sanghar: 778,950 bales (+20.7%) – remains Sindh’s cotton backbone
- Sukkur: 99,600 bales (+432%) – massive jump
- Ghotki: 17,200 bales (+353%)
- Khairpur: 41,780 bales (+304%)
- Declines: Badin (–61%).
Sindh is the star performer, with early crop arrivals far ahead of Punjab, driven by Sanghar and upper Sindh districts.
🔄 Comparison with Last Season
- This Year Flow (till 15 Sept 2025): 668,752 bales.
- Last Year Flow (same period): 208,082 bales.
- Increase: +221% in fortnightly arrivals.
This reflects a timely and strong crop, compared to the delayed arrivals last year.
🏭 Sales & Stock Position
- Sold Bales: 1.678 million (99% to textile mills).
- Unsold Stock: 325,780 bales (vs. 83,177 last year).
- Market Implication:
- Higher stock levels may ease pressure on spinning mills.
- May also cap domestic cotton prices, especially in Sindh.
📌 Key Insights
- National cotton arrivals up nearly 40% YoY, signaling crop recovery.
- Sindh leads growth (+47%), Punjab moderate (+28%).
- Hotspots: Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalnagar, Sukkur, Khairpur.
- Weak zones: Lodhran, Sahiwal, Badin.
- Market balance improving – higher arrivals + larger unsold stocks = more stability for textile sector.
📈 Outlook
- If the current pace continues, Pakistan may reach 8–9 million bales this season, compared to ~6.5 million last year.
- Better availability could reduce import dependence and improve mill margins.
- However, regional disparities (losses in central Punjab, gains in Sindh & South Punjab) suggest uneven crop conditions.
Here’s a district-level arrivals chart comparing Punjab and Sindh performance for September 2025.
Would you like me to also prepare a growth rate (%) chart per district so you can quickly see which regions surged and which declined?