September 4, 2025 (Thursday)
PCGA Report: Initial Arrivals Improve but Fears of Overall Production Decline Persist
By Sajid Mahmood, Head of Technology Transfer Department, Central Cotton Research Institute Multan
According to the report released today by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), total cotton arrivals across the country stood at 1,335,632 bales as of August 31, 2025 compared to 1,225,946 bales on the same date last year. This reflects a national increase of nearly 8.95 percent. Commenting on the report, Sajid Mahmood, Head of Technology Transfer at the Central Cotton Research Institute Multan, told Textiles Bar that while the early increase is encouraging it would be premature to conclude that overall production will also remain higher this season as weather patterns and flood damage are severely affecting the crop.
Discussing the provincial situation Sajid Mahmood explained that Punjab recorded 465,570 bales which is only 2.81 percent higher than last year. Sindh performed comparatively better with arrivals reaching 870,062 bales, a 12.54 percent increase, while Balochistan showed the sharpest rise at 56.32 percent with arrivals of 47,600 bales. According to Sajid Mahmood although these figures are encouraging the real outcome in the coming weeks will depend heavily on weather conditions and the later stages of the crop.
Highlighting the challenges facing the crop Sajid Mahmood noted that extreme weather, heavy rains, heat waves, floods and water shortages have placed severe pressure on this vital cash crop. The cotton curl leaf virus and pink bollworm infestations have also inflicted damage while reduced application of fertilizers particularly phosphorus, SOP, urea and nitrogenous fertilizers has further compounded the situation. He added that although fruiting initially appeared promising the heat waves of June and July, coupled with water scarcity, led to fruit shedding and stunted plant growth.
Floods have further aggravated the situation. According to cautious estimates rice production in Punjab could decline by 60 percent, sugarcane by 30 percent and cotton by 35 percent. To date crops in over 2,100 villages have been destroyed causing billions of rupees in agricultural losses. Thousands of acres of cotton in Pakpattan, Vehari, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur and Rajanpur have been submerged. Sajid Mahmood emphasized that southern Punjab holds a pivotal role in national cotton output making the losses particularly significant.
The situation in Sindh is also concerning. Intense heat, water shortages and rains have negatively impacted both yield and quality. Due to water scarcity only 65 percent of the sowing target was achieved this year affecting both quantity and quality of production. Referring to a recent USDA report Sajid Mahmood highlighted that cotton acreage nationwide has declined by 7.5 percent with the steepest drop recorded in Sindh. Consequently overall production estimates have been revised downward to 4.8 million bales which is nearly 4 percent less than last year. Thus while the PCGA report indicates that early arrivals and stock positions are stronger than last year climate change, flooding and pest attacks make it clear that total production for the 2024-25 season is likely to decline with direct consequences for the national economy and the textile sector.
Regarding ginning factories Sajid Mahmood pointed out that 299 factories are currently operational compared to 272 last year. In Punjab 130 factories are active representing a 30 percent increase while in Sindh the number stands at 169 showing a slight decline of 1.74 percent. He further noted that stock levels have shown a remarkable improvement reaching 200,700 bales compared to just 53,564 bales at the same time last year an increase of 274.69 percent. However deliveries to the textile sector this year totaled 1,134,932 bales compared to 1,171,982 bales last year reflecting a decline of about 3.16 percent.
Conclusion:
In conclusioSajid Mahmood stated that while the initial PCGA figures appear encouraging weather conditions and other challenges continue to pose serious difficulties for farmers. He stressed that future success depends on how well farmers and relevant institutions work together learn from the current experience and manage the remaining stages of the crop more effectively to maximize cotton production.