📊 Key Highlights of Cotton Arrivals 2025 vs 2024
- Total Arrivals in Pakistan (till Aug 31, 2025): 1.335 million bales
🔼 +8.95% higher compared to 1.225 million bales last year. - Punjab: 465,570 bales (🔼 +2.81% vs last year).
- Sindh: 870,062 bales (🔼 +12.54% vs last year).
- Unsold stock: 200,700 bales vs only 53,564 bales last year (a sharp rise, showing slower buying pace).
🏭 Regional Analysis
Punjab
- Performance is mixed:
- Strong increases: Rajanpur (+155%), Dera Ghazi Khan (+131%), Bahawalnagar (+24.8%).
- Sharp declines: Faisalabad (-39.6%), Sahiwal (-30.3%), Lodhran (-69.2%).
- Punjab’s arrivals show overall slight growth, but with imbalances across districts.
Sindh
- Sindh outperformed Punjab with a double-digit growth:
- Big gains: Sukkur (+235%), Khairpur (+318%), Naushero Feroze (+150%).
- Major growth driver: Sanghar alone contributed over 615,800 bales (largest in the country), showing +8% rise.
- Some weaker areas: Badin (-53%), Jamshoro (-8%), Nawabshah (-8%).
- Balochistan arrivals also rose sharply (+56%), supporting Sindh’s strong performance.
📉 Market & Trade Implications
- Higher Arrivals:
The increase in arrivals (+8.95%) indicates better crop output despite climatic challenges. - Unsold Stocks Rising:
- Unsold stock (200,700 bales) is nearly 4x higher than last year.
- This shows weaker demand from mills/exporters or delayed procurement strategies.
- Regional Disparity:
- Sindh shows robust performance while Punjab’s growth is relatively modest.
- This could affect regional ginning and textile mill utilization.
- Price Pressure Expected:
- With increased supply and slower offtake, local cotton prices may face downward pressure unless demand picks up.
- Exports & Imports Outlook:
- If Pakistan’s demand remains low, mills may delay imports of cotton.
- Strong local arrivals could reduce reliance on imported cotton in the short term.
🌾 Outcomes & Future Outlook
- Positive Sign: Larger arrivals are encouraging for the textile sector, ensuring raw material availability.
- Challenge: Rising unsold stocks highlight a need for stronger demand, better liquidity in spinning mills, and improved export competitiveness.
- Next Crops Benefit:
- Good rainfall and water availability due to recent floods (in some areas) could support the next wheat and Rabi crops.
- However, excessive rains may also damage standing cotton in some districts if not managed.
✅ Conclusion:
Pakistan’s cotton arrivals up to 31st August 2025 show moderate national growth (+8.95%), led mainly by Sindh and Balochistan, while Punjab’s gains remain modest. The surge in unsold stocks is a red flag, pointing to weak demand and liquidity issues in the textile chain. Going forward, balancing procurement, exports, and mill demand will be crucial to stabilize cotton prices and ensure sustainable growth in Pakistan’s textile sector.